Raper et al. 2026 (Rangeland Ecology & Management)
RESEARCH BRIEF #57
A summary based on the following publication:
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MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS
- Individuals with knowledge of eastern red cedar encroachment, elderly residents, and those with recent experience of prolonged drought periods were likely to have a greater related perceived risk.
- Rural residents were more knowledgeable about eastern red cedar encroachment than urban and suburban residents.
- Urban, suburban, and younger residents are important targets for outreach and educational efforts about the risks associated with eastern red cedar encroachment.
In this study, researchers sought to understand how rural and nonrural residents in Oklahoma perceive the increased likelihood of wildfire occurrence (i.e., risk) associated with eastern red cedar (Juniperus virginiana, ERC hereafter) encroachment and to identify important factors that influence their awareness and risk perceptions. The study evaluated two primary questions: (1) What factors influence residents’ knowledge of ERC encroachment? and (2) What factors influence the degree of risk residents perceive associated with ERC encroachment?
Historically maintained by frequent fire, prairie and oak savanna ecosystems in this region and throughout much of the Great Plains have experienced widespread woody expansion due largely to decades of fire exclusion. Here, ERC encroachment has created very significant ecological and fire management challenges, particularly within the expanding wildland–urban interface (WUI). The resulting increase in dense ERC stands contributes to reduced forage production, altered water availability, loss of grassland habitat, and substantially increased wildfire risk. Regional research has shown that prescribed fire is the most effective and inexpensive tool for management of ERC encroachment, see Bidwell et al. 2017 for more information on this.
Researchers analyzed responses from 2,180 Oklahoma residents who participated in a statewide survey conducted between November 2021 and January 2022. Survey respondents represented both rural (37%) and nonrural (urban and suburban, 63%) communities. Statistical analyses (binary logistic and ordinal logistic regression models) were used to evaluate how demographic characteristics (duration of residence, age, education, and income), environmental concerns (water availability and soil quality), and natural hazard experiences (drought and wildfire) within the past 6 months influenced public knowledge and perceived risk.
An important finding was that knowledge of ERC encroachment differed substantially across the rural-to-urban gradient. Fifty-seven percent of rural residents reported prior knowledge of the issue, compared with only 41% of urban and suburban residents. Additionally, education, age, gender, drought experience, and length of residence were all significant factors associated with differences in knowledge levels of ERC encroachment among respondents.
Despite differences in knowledge, there was no significant difference in risk perception between rural and nonrural residents. However, experience with natural hazards increased awareness and concern. For example, residents who had experienced a prolonged drought were more likely to understand ERC encroachment and perceive it as a significant risk, regardless of whether they lived in rural or nonrural settings. Similarly, residents who had concerns about water availability had greater awareness of wildfire risks associated with ERC encroachment. Individuals who understood ERC encroachment were more likely to perceive it as a personal threat. This relationship was particularly strong among rural residents but was also evident in urban and suburban populations. See table below, from the original publication, describing the factors impacting the perceived risk of ERC encroachment.
Another interesting finding relates to solutions to ERC encroachment. A majority of nonrural residents preferred that management decisions related to ERC encroachment be made by a combination of state agencies and property owners and managers, compared to the preferences of a majority of rural residents who preferred that these decisions be made by property owners and managers. These results align with previous research showing that direct government involvement in private land management often encounters resistance in the southern U.S., where landowners tend to favor public support through financial incentives rather than regulatory approaches (see Kreye et al. 2019 for more on this). These findings indicate that addressing ERC encroachment risks may benefit from increased private–public partnerships, including financial incentives and increased support for prescribed fire use on private lands through efforts such as developing prescribed burn associations.
The knowledge gap between rural and non-rural residents concerning ERC encroachment is especially relevant as ERC expands into the WUI. Many residents living in areas with increasing wildfire exposure may not recognize the connection between ERC encroachment, fuel accumulation, and wildfire behavior, suggesting that urban and suburban communities represent a critical audience for future wildfire risk education and outreach efforts.
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